2018 3rd Quarter Stowe & Surrounding Area Real Estate Update
On a national level, the pace of existing-home sales are expected to decline slightly in 2018 due to declining affordability; yet in our regional market, the numbers through the 3rd quarter are encouraging with increases in the number of properties sold, the average value of the transactions, and the overall volume sold – all of this with mortgage rates at their highest point in 7 years!
2018 Q3 stats
Mark Fleming, First American chief economist: “House prices are in part a reflection of supply and demand. As housing supply increases, relative to the demand, prices or appreciation slows down.” It seems that the buyers are – stepping back a little bit. And with more housing inventory coming due, in a large part, to new construction, the supply of housing will begin to increase. Therefore, buyer demand will somewhat begin to soften, and price appreciation will to slow down. That doesn’t mean depreciation. As a matter of fact, CoreLogic, recently reported the slacking in demand is reflected in the slowing of national appreciation. National appreciation in August of 2018 was the slowest in nearly two years. And we expect appreciation to slow further in the coming year. Now, the key words there – they expect appreciation to slow, not go into the red.
Regardless of a volatile national political climate, the national economy remains steady. Previous recession triggers included factors such as energy price shocks, policy error or simply psychological pessimism… although it is not clear what could be the trigger for the rumored recession, it does not seem to be affecting the housing market – nationally or locally in our area of Vermont.
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